The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Incidence and Short-Term Survival for Common Solid Tumours in the United Kingdom: A Cohort Analysis

Nicola L Barclay; Theresa Burkard; Edward Burn; Antonella Delmestri; Andrea Miquel Dominguez; Asieh Golozar; Carlos Guarner-Argente; Francesc Xavier Avilés-Jurado; Wai Yi Man; Àlvar Roselló Serrano; Andreas Weinberger Rosen; Eng Hooi Tan; Ilona Tietzova; Daniel Prieto Alhambra; Danielle Newby; OPTIMA Consortium

doi:10.2147/CLEP.S463160

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Incidence and Short-Term Survival for Common Solid Tumours in the United Kingdom: A Cohort Analysis

Nicola L Barclay
, Theresa Burkard
, Edward Burn
, Antonella Delmestri
, Andrea Miquel Dominguez
, Asieh Golozar
, Carlos Guarner-Argente
, Francesc Xavier Avilés-Jurado
, Wai Yi Man
, Àlvar Roselló Serrano
, Andreas Weinberger Rosen
, Eng Hooi Tan
, Ilona Tietzova
, Daniel Prieto Alhambra^*
, Danielle Newby
, OPTIMA Consortium

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer-review

Abstract

PURPOSE: The COVID-19 pandemic profoundly affected healthcare systems and patients. There is a need to comprehend the collateral effects of the pandemic on non-communicable diseases. We examined the impact of the pandemic on short-term survival for common solid tumours, including breast, colorectal, head and neck, liver, lung, oesophageal, pancreatic, prostate, and stomach cancer in the UK.

METHODS: This was a population-based cohort study of electronic health records from the UK primary care Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD database. In sum, 12,259,744 eligible patients aged ≥18 years with ≥1 year's history identified from January 2000 to December 2022 were included. We estimated age-standardised incidence and short-term (one- and two-year) survival for several common cancers from 2000 to 2019 (in five-year strata) and compared these to 2020-2022 using the Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULTS: Incidence decreased for most cancers in 2020 and recovered to different extents in 2021-2022. Short-term survival improved for most cancers between 2000 and 2019, but then declined, albeit minimally, for those diagnosed in 2020-2022. This was most pronounced for colorectal cancer, with one-year survival falling from 78.8% (95% CI 78%-79.6%) in 2015-2019 to 77% (95% CI 75.6-78.3%) for those diagnosed in 2020-2022.

CONCLUSION: Short-term survival for many cancers was impacted, albeit minimally, by the pandemic in the UK, with reductions in survivorship from colorectal cancer equivalent to returning to the mortality seen in the first decade of the 2000s. While data on longer-term survival are needed to fully comprehend the impact of COVID-19 on cancer care, our findings illustrate the need for an urgent and substantial commitment from the UK National Health Service to address the existing backlog in cancer screening and diagnostic procedures to improve cancer care and mortality.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	417-429
Number of pages	13
Journal	Clinical Epidemiology
Volume	16
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.2147/CLEP.S463160
Publication status	Published - 2024

Funding

This study was funded by the European Health Data & Evidence Network (EHDEN) and the Optimal treatment for Patients with Solid Tumours in Europe through Artificial Intelligence (OPTIMA) initiative, which has received funding from the Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 (IMI2) Joint Undertaking under grant agreements 806968 and 101034347, respectively. IMI2 receives support from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme and the European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA) . IMI supports collaborative research projects and builds networks of industrial and academic experts in order to boost pharmaceutical innovation in Europe. The views communicated within are those of OPTIMA and EHDEN. Neither the IMI nor the European Union, EFPIA, or any associated partners are responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained herein. AWR would like to thank Professor Ismail Goegenur and Dr Mikail Goegenur for discussions regarding development of the colorectal cancer phenotyping used in this study. The study funders had no role in the conceptualisation, design, data collection, analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. This paper is also available on medRxiv as a preprint, which can be found here: https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.09.14.23295563

Funders	Funder number
European Health Data & Evidence Network
European Union	806968, 101034347
European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations

Keywords

Cancer
Colorectal cancer
Covid-19
Incidence
Pandemic
Survival

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10.2147/CLEP.S463160

Cite this

Barclay, N. L., Burkard, T., Burn, E., Delmestri, A., Miquel Dominguez, A., Golozar, A., Guarner-Argente, C., Avilés-Jurado, F. X., Man, W. Y., Roselló Serrano, À., Rosen, A. W., Tan, E. H., Tietzova, I., Prieto Alhambra, D., Newby, D., & OPTIMA Consortium (2024). The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Incidence and Short-Term Survival for Common Solid Tumours in the United Kingdom: A Cohort Analysis. Clinical Epidemiology, 16, 417-429. https://doi.org/10.2147/CLEP.S463160

@article{3d25ff55bb6e481592ea8d62feffe02c,

title = "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Incidence and Short-Term Survival for Common Solid Tumours in the United Kingdom: A Cohort Analysis",

abstract = "PURPOSE: The COVID-19 pandemic profoundly affected healthcare systems and patients. There is a need to comprehend the collateral effects of the pandemic on non-communicable diseases. We examined the impact of the pandemic on short-term survival for common solid tumours, including breast, colorectal, head and neck, liver, lung, oesophageal, pancreatic, prostate, and stomach cancer in the UK.METHODS: This was a population-based cohort study of electronic health records from the UK primary care Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD database. In sum, 12,259,744 eligible patients aged ≥18 years with ≥1 year's history identified from January 2000 to December 2022 were included. We estimated age-standardised incidence and short-term (one- and two-year) survival for several common cancers from 2000 to 2019 (in five-year strata) and compared these to 2020-2022 using the Kaplan-Meier method.RESULTS: Incidence decreased for most cancers in 2020 and recovered to different extents in 2021-2022. Short-term survival improved for most cancers between 2000 and 2019, but then declined, albeit minimally, for those diagnosed in 2020-2022. This was most pronounced for colorectal cancer, with one-year survival falling from 78.8\% (95\% CI 78\%-79.6\%) in 2015-2019 to 77\% (95\% CI 75.6-78.3\%) for those diagnosed in 2020-2022.CONCLUSION: Short-term survival for many cancers was impacted, albeit minimally, by the pandemic in the UK, with reductions in survivorship from colorectal cancer equivalent to returning to the mortality seen in the first decade of the 2000s. While data on longer-term survival are needed to fully comprehend the impact of COVID-19 on cancer care, our findings illustrate the need for an urgent and substantial commitment from the UK National Health Service to address the existing backlog in cancer screening and diagnostic procedures to improve cancer care and mortality.",

keywords = "Cancer, Colorectal cancer, Covid-19, Incidence, Pandemic, Survival",

author = "Barclay, \{Nicola L\} and Theresa Burkard and Edward Burn and Antonella Delmestri and \{Miquel Dominguez\}, Andrea and Asieh Golozar and Carlos Guarner-Argente and Avil{\'e}s-Jurado, \{Francesc Xavier\} and Man, \{Wai Yi\} and \{Rosell{\'o} Serrano\}, {\`A}lvar and Rosen, \{Andreas Weinberger\} and Tan, \{Eng Hooi\} and Ilona Tietzova and \{Prieto Alhambra\}, Daniel and Danielle Newby and \{OPTIMA Consortium\}",

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year = "2024",

doi = "10.2147/CLEP.S463160",

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volume = "16",

pages = "417--429",

journal = "Clinical Epidemiology",

issn = "1179-1349",

publisher = "Dove Medical Press Limited",

}

Barclay, NL, Burkard, T, Burn, E, Delmestri, A, Miquel Dominguez, A, Golozar, A, Guarner-Argente, C, Avilés-Jurado, FX, Man, WY, Roselló Serrano, À, Rosen, AW, Tan, EH, Tietzova, I, Prieto Alhambra, D, Newby, D & OPTIMA Consortium 2024, 'The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Incidence and Short-Term Survival for Common Solid Tumours in the United Kingdom: A Cohort Analysis', Clinical Epidemiology, vol. 16, pp. 417-429. https://doi.org/10.2147/CLEP.S463160

TY - JOUR

T1 - The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Incidence and Short-Term Survival for Common Solid Tumours in the United Kingdom

T2 - A Cohort Analysis

AU - Barclay, Nicola L

AU - Burkard, Theresa

AU - Burn, Edward

AU - Delmestri, Antonella

AU - Miquel Dominguez, Andrea

AU - Golozar, Asieh

AU - Guarner-Argente, Carlos

AU - Avilés-Jurado, Francesc Xavier

AU - Man, Wai Yi

AU - Roselló Serrano, Àlvar

AU - Rosen, Andreas Weinberger

AU - Tan, Eng Hooi

AU - Tietzova, Ilona

AU - Prieto Alhambra, Daniel

AU - Newby, Danielle

AU - OPTIMA Consortium

PY - 2024

Y1 - 2024

N2 - PURPOSE: The COVID-19 pandemic profoundly affected healthcare systems and patients. There is a need to comprehend the collateral effects of the pandemic on non-communicable diseases. We examined the impact of the pandemic on short-term survival for common solid tumours, including breast, colorectal, head and neck, liver, lung, oesophageal, pancreatic, prostate, and stomach cancer in the UK.METHODS: This was a population-based cohort study of electronic health records from the UK primary care Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD database. In sum, 12,259,744 eligible patients aged ≥18 years with ≥1 year's history identified from January 2000 to December 2022 were included. We estimated age-standardised incidence and short-term (one- and two-year) survival for several common cancers from 2000 to 2019 (in five-year strata) and compared these to 2020-2022 using the Kaplan-Meier method.RESULTS: Incidence decreased for most cancers in 2020 and recovered to different extents in 2021-2022. Short-term survival improved for most cancers between 2000 and 2019, but then declined, albeit minimally, for those diagnosed in 2020-2022. This was most pronounced for colorectal cancer, with one-year survival falling from 78.8% (95% CI 78%-79.6%) in 2015-2019 to 77% (95% CI 75.6-78.3%) for those diagnosed in 2020-2022.CONCLUSION: Short-term survival for many cancers was impacted, albeit minimally, by the pandemic in the UK, with reductions in survivorship from colorectal cancer equivalent to returning to the mortality seen in the first decade of the 2000s. While data on longer-term survival are needed to fully comprehend the impact of COVID-19 on cancer care, our findings illustrate the need for an urgent and substantial commitment from the UK National Health Service to address the existing backlog in cancer screening and diagnostic procedures to improve cancer care and mortality.

AB - PURPOSE: The COVID-19 pandemic profoundly affected healthcare systems and patients. There is a need to comprehend the collateral effects of the pandemic on non-communicable diseases. We examined the impact of the pandemic on short-term survival for common solid tumours, including breast, colorectal, head and neck, liver, lung, oesophageal, pancreatic, prostate, and stomach cancer in the UK.METHODS: This was a population-based cohort study of electronic health records from the UK primary care Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD database. In sum, 12,259,744 eligible patients aged ≥18 years with ≥1 year's history identified from January 2000 to December 2022 were included. We estimated age-standardised incidence and short-term (one- and two-year) survival for several common cancers from 2000 to 2019 (in five-year strata) and compared these to 2020-2022 using the Kaplan-Meier method.RESULTS: Incidence decreased for most cancers in 2020 and recovered to different extents in 2021-2022. Short-term survival improved for most cancers between 2000 and 2019, but then declined, albeit minimally, for those diagnosed in 2020-2022. This was most pronounced for colorectal cancer, with one-year survival falling from 78.8% (95% CI 78%-79.6%) in 2015-2019 to 77% (95% CI 75.6-78.3%) for those diagnosed in 2020-2022.CONCLUSION: Short-term survival for many cancers was impacted, albeit minimally, by the pandemic in the UK, with reductions in survivorship from colorectal cancer equivalent to returning to the mortality seen in the first decade of the 2000s. While data on longer-term survival are needed to fully comprehend the impact of COVID-19 on cancer care, our findings illustrate the need for an urgent and substantial commitment from the UK National Health Service to address the existing backlog in cancer screening and diagnostic procedures to improve cancer care and mortality.

KW - Cancer

KW - Colorectal cancer

KW - Covid-19

KW - Incidence

KW - Pandemic

KW - Survival

U2 - 10.2147/CLEP.S463160

DO - 10.2147/CLEP.S463160

M3 - Article

C2 - 38882578

SN - 1179-1349

VL - 16

SP - 417

EP - 429

JO - Clinical Epidemiology

JF - Clinical Epidemiology

ER -

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Incidence and Short-Term Survival for Common Solid Tumours in the United Kingdom: A Cohort Analysis

Abstract

Funding

Keywords

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