Time trends in prevalence of p16 positivity and combined HPV/p16 positivity in a large cohort of Danish vulvar cancer patients

Vulvar cancer is rare, but causes substantial morbidity in affected patients. A subset of vulvar cancers is caused by high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV), which primarily exerts its oncogenic effect through upregulation of tumor suppressor protein p16. Tumors positive for both hrHPV and p16 (double positive) are assumed to be HPV-driven, but only few large studies have investigated the combined prevalence of hrHPV and p16 positivity in vulvar cancer over time. In this Danish cross-sectional study, we assessed the prevalence of p16 positivity and double positivity for hrHPV and p16 in a large sample of vulvar squamous cell carcinomas (VSCCs) diagnosed during 1990 to 2017. In a nationwide register, we identified VSCCs from 13 hospitals across Denmark, and collected archival tumor tissue for hrHPV testing with INNO-LiPA and immunohistochemical p16 staining. We calculated the prevalence of hrHPV, p16 positivity and double positivity according to time, age and histological subtype and evaluated time trends through estimated annual percentage changes. We included 1278 VSCCs. Overall, 35.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 32.4-37.6) were positive for p16 and 31.0% (95% CI: 28.4-33.5) were positive for both hrHPV and p16. The prevalence of p16 positivity and double positivity increased over time, both in women aged ≤59 and ≥60 years. The double positive prevalence was higher in nonkeratinizing (60.7%) and warty/basaloid VSCCs (67.5%) than in keratinizing (16.1%) and verrucous VSCCs (5.0%). These results indicate that approximately one-third of vulvar cancers were caused by hrHPV infection, supporting a substantial preventive potential of the HPV vaccine.