Long-term risk of colorectal cancer after screen-detected adenoma: Experiences from a Danish gFOBT-positive screening cohort

Fecal occult blood test (FOBT) screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) is implemented in several countries. Approximately half of all FOBT-positive persons have screen-detected adenomas. Despite removal of these, patients with large/multiple adenomas have increased risk of later developing new advanced adenomas and CRC. International guidelines exist for colonoscopic surveillance following adenoma removal. These divide patients into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups. We followed 711 FOBT-positive patients with screening adenoma identified during population-based CRC screening in two Danish counties in 2005-2006. As reference population, we included 1,240,348 persons in the same age group from the rest of Denmark not included in the screening. We estimated the long-term CRC risk stratified by adenoma findings during screening and compared to the reference group. After 12 years follow-up, the CRC incidence among all adenoma patients was 322 cases per 100,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 212-489) ranging from 251 (95% CI: 94-671) to 542 (95% CI: 300-978) cases per 100,000 person-years in the low- and high-risk groups, respectively. In the reference population, the CRC incidence was 244 (95% CI: 242-247) per 100,000. Patients with screen-detected high-risk adenomas after a positive FOBT had an almost doubled risk of CRC compared to the reference population (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.95, 95% CI: 1.08-3.51), and the incidence in those with no follow-up visits was over 3.6 (aHR 3.64, 95% CI: 1.82-7.29) times the incidence in the reference population. The increased CRC risk could be controlled if high-risk patients underwent follow-up colonoscopy (aHR 0.87, 95% CI: 0.28-2.69).