Cirrhosis epidemiology in Denmark 1998-2022, and 2030 forecast

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The incidence of cirrhosis resulting from alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) is decreasing in Denmark, whereas the incidence of obesity is increasing, driving an increase in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). We aimed to perform an up-to-date study of the epidemiology of cirrhosis in Denmark, including etiologies, and a forecast through to 2030.

METHODS: We identified all patients diagnosed with cirrhosis between 1998 and 2022, categorized into ALD and non-ALD cirrhosis, in nationwide Danish healthcare registries. Cirrhosis prevalence and incidence were computed. We used an age-period-cohort model to visualize impacts of age, calendar year, and birthyear on etiology-specific cirrhosis incidence rates (alcohol or non-alcohol, interpreted as mainly the result of MASLD), with predicted incidence rates for 2023-2030. The Kaplan-Meier function was used for survival probabilities.

RESULTS: We included 30,747 (76%) patients with ALD cirrhosis and 9,548 (24%) with non-ALD cirrhosis. Patients with non-ALD cirrhosis were older and had more comorbidities compared with patients with ALD cirrhosis; median age at diagnosis was 66 vs. 59 years, increasing in both groups overall, from 56 years in 1998 to 66 years in 2022. The ALD cirrhosis proportion was stable at around 80% from 1998 to the end of 2014, and gradually declined to 58% in 2022. Overall cirrhosis prevalence will have peaked in 2024, and non-ALD cirrhosis will outnumber ALD cirrhosis from 2027. Thus, mortality among patients with cirrhosis is declining owing to fewer deaths the first year after cirrhosis diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS: We forecast a change in cirrhosis epidemiology affecting hepatology practice in Denmark: patients will be older, fewer will have ALD, more will have MASLD, and their longer life expectancy and comorbidities will be more burdensome for healthcare systems.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Alcohol-related liver (ALD) cirrhosis poses a substantial and growing burden on hospitals worldwide. Information about the current and imminent epidemiology of cirrhosis is important for our understanding of the public health, for researchers designing trials of interventions, and for planning of future assignments of healthcare systems. In the current study, we used Danish nationwide healthcare registries to study past, current, and future trends in the epidemiology of cirrhosis. Our results forecast a change in cirrhosis epidemiology and thereby a change in hepatology practice in Denmark. We expect that patients with ALD cirrhosis will be outnumbered by increasingly older patients who present in the outpatient clinic with cirrhosis from MASLD and a higher burden of comorbidities.